14 May Optimistic outlook post-Coronavirus – Bristol & North Somerset
Estate agents across Bristol and North Somerset – Parkers in Backwell, Hensons in Nailsea, Mark Templer in Clevedon and Yatton, Nightingales in Weston Super Mare, Moran Beddoe, Brunt & Fussell and DW Smith & Co in Bristol, and all five branches of Westcoast Properties – have a positive outlook on the property market after Coronavirus, and here’s why…
The impact of Coronavirus on the UK housing market will be significant. Just over seven weeks ago, on 23rd March, the Government ordered non-essential shops and businesses – including estate agencies – to close, viewings were disallowed and more discommodious was the advice to buyers and sellers with transactions in the pipeline – even those who had exchanged contracts – to postpone moving until the stay-at-home measures are lifted.
The Coronavirus pandemic follows almost four years of ambiguity for the UK in the form of Brexit. We’ve certainly had our fair share of political and economic uncertainty of late! By absolute coincidence, the 31st January 2020 marked both the end of one and the beginning of another period of ambivalence – it was our final day in the EU, and the day our first Coronavirus case was recorded.
Much of the Land Registry and ONS (Office for National Statistics) data on the housing market for the last quarter – the period greatest affected by the pandemic so far, is not yet available. This will make interesting reading, to say the least.
But, having studied the property market statistics for the course of Brexit, which was widely reported as suppressing the market, there are many reasons for a long-term positive outlook.
The pre-Coronavirus data reveals an unwavering year-on-year increase in the average price of a home in England, with an overall national rise of 21% during the five years from February 2015 to February 2020.
In the South West, prices in Bristol soared the most during this period, by 33% with the average home worth £212,798 in February 2015 rising to £283,230 five years later. In North Somerset, homes rose by 25%, from £210,712 to £262,877 over the same period; the rest of Somerset close behind with an increase of 24%.
The volume of sales is also interesting. Before Brexit, the market was thriving – the 12 months to February 2016 saw the number of homes sold increase by 17% in Bristol and 4% in North Somerset. The EU Referendum took place in June 2016, David Cameron resigned the next day and Theresa May became Prime Minister in July. In these 12 months to February 2017, the number of property sales in Bristol and North Somerset dropped by 12% and 14% whilst the average price rose by around 8.3% and 6.25% respectively – a reflection of the market at the time with fewer properties for sale during this period of particular political uncertainty driving prices upward.
The figures to February 2018 are slightly curious. Bristol followed the previous pattern with a 7.5% drop in the number of sales and prices up by 6.2%, but in North Somerset prices rose 6.5% while the number of sales went up by a staggering 23%. Volume dipped again by February 2019 while prices rose more modestly. We can attribute this to our looming exit of the EU on 30th March 2019, which was then extended to the end of October.
Theresa May resigned in May 2019 and Boris Johnson became our Prime Minister in July. This was a pivotal moment in the market with a new-found confidence dubbed the ‘Boris Bounce’. Between February and December 2019, both prices and the volume of sales in Bristol and North Somerset grew with a fresh air of positivity. We finally left the EU on 31st January 2020.
The pre-Coronavirus housing market was looking extremely bright with modest, sustainable price increases across all regions and the volume of sales up in Bristol, North Somerset, across the South West and England as a whole. Sales volume data is not yet available for the last quarter – it will undoubtedly show a dramatic downward shift in the sales pattern.
The Coronavirus pandemic of 2020 will be written in the history books as the single, most significant influence of our time, and we are under no illusion that there will be a huge amount of reverberation on our lives and finances, which will be reflected in the market for months to come.
However, long-term, we feel there is still an incredibly positive outlook for our housing market. Without a doubt, we will have to adopt a ‘new normal’ in the way we operate and interact with buyers, sellers, landlords and tenants, but we are looking forward with optimism.
As independent estate agency members of the Experts in Property, we will be ready for that new normal; ready to tackle both old and new challenges with vigour when we re-open our doors to the public.
the Experts in Property network – the largest in the South West – has supported its members and their clients throughout the crisis so they will re-emerge stronger, more resilient and more innovative than ever before. Since lockdown, the agents – in conjunction with sellers and landlords – have created virtual video tours and conducted virtual valuations to ensure social distancing, which has resulted in sales and lettings being agreed. The network has issued advice to landlords and agents on how to deal with contractors and emergencies and has provided advice to help tenants struggling to pay their rent. It has held weekly webinars with its member agents, offering advice, a platform to share experiences and with guest speakers providing guidance on various subjects from business support to social media marketing and life after lockdown.
All member agents have been in regular contact with their sellers, buyers, landlords and tenants to provide any assistance during this crisis and offer help where needed – property-related or not.
Steve Moir, chairman of the Experts in Property, said: “We know there is a huge pent up demand for people to move home and we are confident that our member agents have coped well during this crisis; they are well prepared for the end of lockdown, to help those people realise their dream of moving.”
The network is welcoming enquiries from non-members, particularly at this difficult time. Any independent estate agents looking for advice or support should get in touch by emailing [email protected]
For further information, to find your nearest estate agency member of the Experts in Property, or to browse property for sale throughout the South West, visit www.theexpertsinproperty.co.uk, or get in touch with any of the agents listed above.